BBVA Research has raised Spain's growth forecast for 2018 to 2.9%, and to 2.5% in 2019 . This supposes to improve the forecast of the Government, that is in 2,7%, and approach much to 3% that the Gross Internal Product (GDP) in the three last years and that the own team of studies of the entity recognizes that could reach again this year.
To overcome that level there are two keys. On the one hand there is the possible approval of the General State Budgets of 2018, which if produced "would bring growth even further than 2.9%" , explained Rafael Domenech, responsible for macroeconomic analysis of BBVA Research during the presentation of the report Spain situation.
The other way would be to completely clear political tensions in Catalonia, which despite having "a localized and limited impact", could weigh on Spain's growth "by two or three tenths" this year, added Miguel Cardoso , chief economist for Spain. Also, Cardoso has pointed out that the impact on the community itself could be between three and nine tenths.
But, in any case, what seems obvious is that Spain is ready to grow, one more year, above 3%. This is the objective of the Government, which when it presented the macroeconomic table remarked that 2.7% was a "prudent" estimate. And the president himself, Mariano Rajoy, said at the beginning of this month that "if things are done well" that level can be overcome.
However, this strong growth will be accompanied by a budget deviation greater than that agreed with Brussels. The objective for this year is 2.2%, but from BBVA say that " the recovery will not be enough to meet the deficit ."
The forecast of the entity is that the deficit is 2.4%, data that could be even higher if the Budgets are approved. And it is that the fiscal measures that are contained in the accounts, and that are the same that could take the growth beyond 3%, would also cause an additional deviation of another two tenths .
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